Ramblemuse Touch Points

Today was the first day of this year’s fall American Geophysical Union meeting. It was also the first time I attended an AGU meeting under freelance press/media credentials rather than as a scientist affiliated with an organization. But let’s move on to content.

I spent a goodly portion of the day, first at a press conference and then at sessions organized by Eric Barron and Jack Fellows of UCAR. The sessions focused on how research can more effectively help local and regional decision makers deal with climate change. Among the presentations, Johnathan Overpeck from the University of Arizona summarized NOAA’s Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessment (RISA) program. RISA started about 15 years ago, focusing on forecasting seasonal climate variability from the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It has grown to nine sites, with the focus shifting more to adaptation to climate change. Brad Udall, director of Western Water Assessment, discussed the large number of participants in water research and the great interest in addressing climate change within management of water resources. Interest by water management agencies includes both prognostic capabilities and historical variations in average amounts and extrema of rainfall. Donald Wuebbles, of the University of Illinois, described local efforts by a Chicago Climate Task Force to combine addressing climate vulnerabilities, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and improving quality of life. Another topic mentioned by Jonathan Overpeck was the growing use of seasonal climate forecasts by agencies managing responses to wildfires.

The various presenters stress the need for research that meets stakeholder needs both in topic and in timeliness. The research and planning needs to both involve stakeholders from the onset and create sustained partnerships. Changes in water availability due to climate change are likely the biggest issue. Another major issue, involving both climate planning and social research, comes in assessing population vulnerabilities to extreme heat events and improving adaptation capabilities. Vulnerabilities can vary greatly over small spatial scales and with variations in demographics.

I also caught a few presentations in a session on climate change and management of ecosystems in complex mountain environments. This extended the considerations above into the realm of biological systems. Considerations included how small scale spatial patterns in snowfall in California’s Sierra Nevada could create errors in estimates of water content.